Returning after the holiday, the domestic acetic acid market first rose and then stabilized, gradually entering a stalemate stage. The shipping mentality and production and sales rhythm of enterprises in major production areas are clearly differentiated, and the regional market trend shows differentiated characteristics.
Due to the overall high spot prices and weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the northwest region, there are many urgent needs to replenish inventory, and the willingness to stock up in bulk is weak. The market trading atmosphere is flat, and the overall shipping rhythm of production enterprises is average; Due to some equipment maintenance in the North and Central China regions, there is an expectation of a contraction in spot supply, but the support of supply sources is still sufficient. The regional supply and demand maintain a weak balance, and manufacturers' quotations are relatively stable; The game mentality between the upstream and downstream of East and South China is prominent, with factories showing a strong willingness to raise prices. However, some intermediaries have a high willingness to ship, resulting in some price looseness. Downstream terminals are mainly focused on executing long-term contract orders, while scattered retail investors and intermediaries are cautious in their zero order purchases and lack enthusiasm for entering the market. The overall market transaction volume is limited, and the market is in a stable price volume stagnation and stagnant consolidation trend.
In terms of supply, the recent fluctuations in the acetic acid plant have been relatively frequent. The 800000 ton/year plant of Jiantao Phase II is being restored, while the 600000 ton/year plant of Phase I is undergoing maintenance today; The 800000 ton/year plant of Shanghai Huayi has been scheduled for load reduction maintenance today; Hubei Hualu and Zhejiang Petrochemical continue to shut down, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will drop to 71.48% next week, a decrease of 6.92 percentage points from last week.
With the significant oversold of the price of acetic acid in the early stage and its subsequent rebound, the overall profitability of downstream products has gradually recovered, especially for ester products such as ethyl acetate and butyl acetate, which have seen an increase in profitability. As a result, the overall capacity utilization rate has been improved; The profitability level of vinyl acetate enterprises has declined. Due to the considerable profits in the early stage, although the recent sentiment has fallen and exports have decreased, resulting in a poor market mentality, the profitability level of enterprises is still the most considerable product in the acetic acid industry chain. During May, the overall capacity utilization rate of the PTA industry may remain low, with many PTA units undergoing maintenance and a continuous reduction in supply. However, high levels of social inventory are gradually being absorbed, and the end market is entering the traditional off-season. Polyester production and sales are under pressure, and inventory is difficult to realize profits, resulting in surplus demand but insufficient improvement.
Overall, the supply and demand of acetic acid have both declined synchronously, with more upstream maintenance and production reduction facilities, resulting in a continued decrease in supply; The main downstream demand is mainly driven by long-term contracts, with some downstream customers restocking at low prices; In terms of exports, long-term traders have sufficient supply of goods, but the enthusiasm for inquiries from India is not strong. It is expected that the price of acetic acid will remain stable and weaken in the short term.